Chainmakers

Do I need to invest in a planning platform to create value?

Written by SCL Investor | Jan 29, 2025 7:00:17 PM

Forecasting in Supply Chains: Challenges and Smarter Solutions

Improving forecast accuracy is a universal challenge for supply chains, but are businesses asking the right questions before investing in expensive tools?

SCL Investor recently discussed this question with Mike Dicken, previously Operations and Supply Chain Planing Director at Müller, Dairy Crest and others and now advising companies like Carlsberg, LEGO, DS Smith, CHEP and HERO on multinational IBP (S&OP) transformation programmes.
 
Some of Mike's insights from his experience, included:

1️⃣ Over-complication with technology: Many businesses invest heavily in advanced forecasting tools like AI-driven platforms, often without fully understanding the outcomes they want. Forecasting every SKU down to minute details isn’t always necessary.

2️⃣ Focus on decisions, not data: Instead of trying to predict every product’s demand, businesses should first ask:

  • What decisions need to be made?
  • What time horizons are critical for those decisions?

Simplifying forecasts to key attributes (e.g., product groups or manufacturing requirements) can lead to better outcomes with less complexity.

3️⃣ Data readiness is key: Investing in systems before ensuring data quality is like building a house on sand. Without clean, consistent data, tools become inefficient and costly to maintain.

4️⃣ Iterative and scalable solutions: Not every business needs a big-name solution. Tailored, simpler tools—like custom-built forecasting systems—can deliver value quickly and at a fraction of the cost.

5️⃣ Avoid the "selection trap": Technology selection often starts with “safe” choices from well-known providers. But before committing to large-scale tools, businesses should evaluate their specific needs and explore smaller-scale, pilot solutions to test viability.

The goal isn’t just forecast accuracy but also agility in execution—building a supply chain that can adapt and thrive in today’s dynamic environment.